Firstly, a quick reminder of the scores on the doors.
Leading arriving at Brands Hatch is Jack Young who leads closest rival Max Coates, second in the standings, by 15 points.
In third is Jamie Bond but, by contrast, he is a sizeable 46 points behind leader Young.
With a maximum of only 56 points to be had from Brands Hatch’s season ending two rounds that very much makes him the outsider.
Top 3 points:
Jack Young 330
Max Coates 315
Jamie Bond 284
Now for some clues…
Given their season long podium form, there are two very obvious scenarios facing top two Young and Coates.
Young knows that a second and a third in Brands Hatch’s two races would be enough to seal the title.
That would give him a total of 372 – one more than the maximum that Coates can hope to manage (371).
However, two third places for Young suddenly make him vulnerable if Coates achieves the maximum – namely two wins plus all the bonus points for leading both races and a pair of fastest laps.
In that case Coates would edge it by one point (371 to 370 for Young). However, Young could still win it off the back of a pair of thirds provided he also leads both races at some stage.
P1 across the line at any stage is rewarded with one bonus point but Young would have to do this in both races to still achieve an unsurmountable 372.
If he does it only once then he risks ending up on the same score as Coates (371) and in this situation the Team HARD driver would be crowned Champion thanks to his greater number of wins (he would have nine to Young’s six).
For the record, tie breaks are decided on most wins, then second places and so on…
There is of course the probability that Young will achieve a maximum score in race one – victory, the bonus for leading and two more points for fastest lap.
That would take his tally up to 358 and suddenly Coates would have to finish Saturday’s race inside the top five (15 points) to keep alive any hopes heading into Sunday’s finale.
Meanwhile Bond needs nothing short of a miracle – although it is something of a miracle that he is here at all given that he missed the season’s opening two races at Brands Hatch back in April!
He has to finish race one inside the top five or, if sixth, with fastest lap or he will be eliminated regardless.
Just think of it… 46 points adrift of the lead heading into the weekend with only 56 left.
It is the tallest of orders and even if he were to take a maximum on Saturday and Young and Coates retired from the race he would still be behind both heading into Sunday (18 off Young although only three off Coates).
One factor remains… the others. At least eight more drivers on the grid this weekend have the potential to get in among our three title protagonists and mix things right up, thereby adding a great unknown into the equation.
And then there’s the weather. And avoiding other people’s tangles. And having a cold. And, and, and…